Polls Show Deadlock in Israeli Election Race Ahead of October Vote

Recent opinion polls published this week reveal a tight political race in Israel ahead of the general elections scheduled for Oct. 27. Surveys show that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition bloc has secured the majority needed to form a government if votes were cast today.

A poll by the Index research center, published by Channel 13 on Thursday, found both camps tied at 53 seats each. This result leaves both sides well below the 61-seat threshold required to establish a ruling coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties were projected to secure 14 seats in this survey.

Another survey conducted by the Lazar Research Institute and reported by Maariv showed a slight shift, placing the Jewish opposition ahead with 57 seats against 51 for Netanyahu’s bloc. Despite this lead, the opposition still falls short of a governing majority, highlighting the fragmented nature of the current political landscape.

The results mark a notable change from previous weeks, where the opposition held a larger advantage. The shift appears linked to far-right parties like Religious Zionism and Your People Israel gaining traction. These groups secured enough support to cross the electoral threshold, strengthening Netanyahu’s camp slightly in recent days.

In terms of leadership preference, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot maintains a lead over Netanyahu. The Channel 13 poll showed 47 percent of respondents favoring Eisenkot compared with 37 percent for the incumbent prime minister. The Lazar poll similarly placed Eisenkot ahead, with 48 percent support against 39 percent for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu’s Likud party narrowed the gap with Eisenkot’s Yashar party in the latest counts. Likud rose to 21 seats while Yashar fell to 22 in the Channel 13 survey. Meanwhile, the Lazar poll gave Yashar 23 seats and Likud 20, indicating fluctuating support among voters as the election date approaches.

The upcoming vote is considered crucial for Netanyahu’s political future amid corruption allegations and criticism over his handling of the war in Gaza. He faces charges from the International Criminal Court related to war crimes. Most opposition leaders have stated they refuse to rely on Arab lawmakers to form a government, complicating potential coalition building.